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Monday, December 01, 2003
Humpty Dumpty Redux I can't pinpoint exactly where it came from, but I've developed a strong suspicion that the Bush administration plans to let Afghanistan's government fail. We let Al Qaeda escape the country ages ago. So long as we've got bases in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, Caspian petroleum will be safe. We're not willing to pay the price of turning the country into an actual democracy anway; we're just wasting our time and money there. Once Karzai is ousted, the arguments will run something like this: 1) See? The "terrorists" are still at it. Given that the Taliban and the Ba'athists are the exactly the same, it's a wonder things haven't been worse for us in Iraq. Therefore, our record there should be upgraded to "successful." 2) The Afghanis did this to themselves; they allowed it to happen. Even though we invaded, set up a government and put (some) money towards rebuilding the country, they didn't want democracy bad enough to fight for it. It's not our failure, it's theirs. 3) Every (certain to be highly publicized) death during the ensuing civil war is a reminder of how much better things are for those who toe the U.S. line. 4a) We need to commit even more troops and resources to Iraq because setting up democracies is hard. (But don't see #2, and ignore everything we told you before the war.) >or< 4b) We need to cut our losses and get out of Iraq. They're just not civilized enough for democracy. It's stupid to have our troops' lives on the line trying to do the impossible. Rumsfeld's putting the onus on NATO for keeping a lid on things in Afghanistan, but I don't see it getting very far without active U.S. involvement. Implosion is looking a lot less like an if than a when. 
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